Trump's Re-election and its Impact on South Korea - Economy, Society, and Security

The outcome of the US presidential election will send significant ripples across the globe, particularly impacting South Korea in various ways economically, socially, and in terms of national security. What changes might we expect if former President Trump is re-elected? Let's examine each aspect below.

1. Economic Impact

Trump's economic policies, centered around "America First," could simultaneously bring both positive and negative consequences for the South Korean economy.

• Changes in Trade Policy: Trump has focused on revitalizing US manufacturing and strengthening export controls. This could lead to renegotiations of the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement, potentially putting South Korea's export industries under renewed tariff pressure.
• Exchange Rates and Financial Markets: Trump's unpredictable statements and policy changes could significantly affect global financial markets. This could exacerbate fluctuations in the value of the South Korean won and instability in foreign exchange markets.

2. Social Impact

If US politics become unstable, South Korean society could also feel the repercussions.

• Shifting Sentiments toward the US: Trump's re-election could negatively impact public sentiment toward the US. The possible strengthening of his anti-immigration policies and "America First" approach could lead to increased discomfort among South Koreans regarding US-Korea relations.
• Cultural Impact: The acceptance of American culture in South Korea and perceptions of foreigners could fluctuate. Issues like the stationing of US troops and a potential decrease in American tourists could have a significant impact.

3. Security Impact

During his previous term, Trump demonstrated several hardline stances on security issues related to the Korean Peninsula.

• Defense Cost-Sharing Issue: While emphasizing the US-Korea alliance, Trump consistently demanded increased defense cost-sharing from South Korea. His re-election increases the likelihood of South Korea shouldering a greater burden.
• North Korea's Nuclear Issue: Trump's North Korea policy oscillated between dialogue and sanctions, lacking a clear direction. Re-election could lead to further delays in denuclearization negotiations, potentially increasing security concerns for South Korea.

Conclusion

The impact of a Trump re-election on South Korea will be multifaceted, encompassing economic, social, and security aspects, necessitating preparedness and a proactive response.